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Near Term Direction of Mortgage Rates Depends on Jobs Report

Near Term Direction of Mortgage Rates Depends on Jobs Report

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Average mortgage rates today are slightly higher, driven higher by 10 year U.S. Treasury yields increasing 9 basis points in late afternoon trading. Where mortgage rates are next week will depend a lot on Friday's job's report. Expectations are for non farm payrolls to increase a an increase by a rather large amount of 260,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.8 percent.

If the jobs numbers come in close to forecasts we expect mortgage rates to decline slightly from current levels.Lower than expected numbers will also send average rates lower. The forecast is for 30 year conforming rates to drop below 4.00 percent again. If the number comes in stronger than expected average rates will increase.

MonitorBankRates.com reports average 30 year mortgage rates are at 4.08 percent, up from last week's average 30 year rate of 3.96 percent.

Average mortgage rates in 2014 are nowhere near where forecasts were at the beginning of the year. Earlier this year, forecasts were for conventional 30 year mortgage rates to reach 5.00 percent. The closest 30 year rates came to 5.00 percent was at 4.53 percent back during the first week of January.

30 year rates will definitely not reach 5.00 percent this year and will probably remain near 4.00 percent. Average rates might reach 5.00 percent at the end of 2015, a full year later than originally predicted. One thing is for sure, rates will be moving higher in the coming years so don't get too used to these low rates.

If you're thinking about buying a home now is probably one of the best times ever. Not only are mortgage rates low right now home prices are still a lower than they were at the height of the housing bubble. Home affordability is still high historically speaking. You can use Realtor.com's Home Affordability Calculator to see how much house you can afford.

Current mortgage rates on 15 year conforming loans are averaging 3.04 percent, up from last week's average 15 year mortgage rate of 2.98 percent. We expect average 15 year mortgage rates to fall back below 3.00 percent on any jobs report that doesn't show stronger than expected job growth. There are lenders quoting 15 year refinance rates below 3.00 percent if you're willing to pay points on a loan to secure a lower rate.

Today's mortgage rates on 30 year jumbo loans are also higher averaging 4.15 percent, up from last week's average 30 year jumbo rate of 4.09 percent. Jumbo mortgage rates will remain near current levels for the rest of 2014 and might actually fall back below 4.00 percent. Right now the best jumbo rates available from lenders are still under 4.00 percent if you're willing to pay points to buy down the rate.

15 year jumbo mortgage rates are currently averaging 3.75 percent, an increase from the previous week's average 15 year jumbo rate of 3.69 percent. Average 15 year jumbo rates will also remain near current levels for the rest of the year. Right now on the rate table the lowest 15 year jumbo refinance rates available are well below the average at 2.875 percent with 1 mortgage point.


Author: Brian McKay
December 3rd, 2014