Mortgage Rates Defy Forecasts and Decline in 2017

Mortgage rates were widely forecast to move higher in 2017 but that hasn't happened. In fact, mortgage rates have actually declined since the beginning of 2017. Now we are in the month of June, halfway through the year, and rates are still moving lower.

Back in January 2017, 30 year mortgage rates were above 4.00 percent, averaging around 4.25 percent. By the end of May, 30 year mortgage rates were back under 4.00 percent, averaging 3.90 percent. 30 year mortgage rates today are even lower, averaging 3.75 percent.

RatesORama.com, along with most mortgage related websites, forecast higher mortgage rates. One of the premier organizations in the mortgage business, the Mortgage Bankers Association, also forecast higher mortgage rates. Naturally, their forecast for average rates has declined each month as rates moved lower.


MBA Mortgage Rate Forecasts

January 19th Forecast

  • 30 year rates averaging 4.40% by the 2nd quarter
  • 30 year rates averaging 4.70% by the 4th quarter

April 18th Forecast

  • 30 year rates averaging 4.30% by the 2nd quarter
  • 30 year rates averaging 4.60% by the 4th quarter

June 12th Forecast

  • 30 year rates averaging 4.10% by the 2nd quarter
  • 30 year rates averaging 4.40% by the 4th quarter

The MBA's forecasts will certainly come down again next month since the 2nd quarter of 2017 is almost over and average 30 year rates are at 3.75 percent.

Future Direction of Mortgage Rates

RatesORama.com now forecast average fixed mortgage rates to hover around current levels for the rest of 2017. That would mean 30 year rates will remain around 3.75 percent and 15 year mortgage rates will remain near 3.00 percent.

Shorter term adjustable mortgage rates are more susceptible to short term bond yields moving higher. The Fed is expected to increase the fed funds rate once more in 2017. The increase will be 25 basis points, which will likely force short term mortgage rates up 25 basis points.

Current average 5 year adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.15 percent. A 25 basis point increase will put 5 year adjustable rates around 3.40 percent. 7 year adjustable rates currently averaging 3.35 percent will move towards 3.60 percent.



Loan Type
Purchase    Refinance
Location
State/City    Zip Code
Loan Amt Points FICO % Down
  
$
in 06101, All points, 740    Sort by:
Lender
APR
Rate
Cost & Fees
Notes
 
PERIOD_FIXED_30YEARS Mortgage Loan from AmeriSave Mortgage Corporation
AmeriSave Mortgage Corporation
https:https://mortgagerates.icanbuy.com/images/lenderslogos/111333.gif
300000
Purchase
3.138%
3.125%
USD
AmeriSave Mortgage Corporation Logo
NMLS # 1168
State Lic # 11309
10/23/2020
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,286
Fees in APR: $500
Direct Lender. Billions Funded.
 
PERIOD_FIXED_30YEARS Mortgage Loan from AmeriSave Mortgage Corporation
AmeriSave Mortgage Corporation
https:https://mortgagerates.icanbuy.com/images/lenderslogos/111333.gif
300000
Purchase
2.646%
2.500%
USD
AmeriSave Mortgage Corporation Logo
NMLS # 1168
State Lic # 11309
10/23/2020
at 1.750 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,186
Fees in APR: $5,795
Direct Lender. Billions Funded.
 
PERIOD_FIXED_30YEARS Mortgage Loan from AmeriSave Mortgage Corporation
AmeriSave Mortgage Corporation
https:https://mortgagerates.icanbuy.com/images/lenderslogos/111333.gif
300000
Purchase
2.934%
2.875%
USD
AmeriSave Mortgage Corporation Logo
NMLS # 1168
State Lic # 11309
10/23/2020
at 0.625 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,245
Fees in APR: $2,297
Direct Lender. Billions Funded.
 
PERIOD_FIXED_30YEARS Mortgage Loan from Quicken Loans NMLS #3030
Quicken Loans NMLS #3030
https:https://mortgagerates.icanbuy.com/images/lenderslogos/111724.gif
300000
Purchase
3.693%
3.500%
USD
Quicken Loans NMLS #3030 Logo
NMLS # 3030
10/23/2020
at 2.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,348
Fees in APR: $7,250
The Better Business Bureau gives Quicken Loans and A+ for customer service.
 
PERIOD_FIXED_30YEARS Mortgage Loan from Rocket Mortgage
Rocket Mortgage
https:https://mortgagerates.icanbuy.com/images/lenderslogos/111574.gif
300000
Purchase
3.739%
3.625%
USD
Rocket Mortgage Logo
NMLS # 3030
10/23/2020
at 1.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,369
Fees in APR: $4,250
From the lender: We can close your loan in less than a month!
 
PERIOD_FIXED_30YEARS Mortgage Loan from Rocket Mortgage
Rocket Mortgage
https:https://mortgagerates.icanbuy.com/images/lenderslogos/111574.gif
300000
Purchase
3.314%
3.125%
USD
Rocket Mortgage Logo
NMLS # 3030
10/23/2020
at 2.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,286
Fees in APR: $7,250
From the lender: We can close your loan in less than a month!
 
Data provided by Brown Bag Marketing, Inc. Payments do not include amounts for taxes and insurance premiums. Click here for more information on rates and product details.



Author: Brian McKay
June 29th, 2017