Mortgage Rates Defy Forecasts and Decline in 2017

Mortgage rates were widely forecast to move higher in 2017 but that hasn't happened. In fact, mortgage rates have actually declined since the beginning of 2017. Now we are in the month of June, halfway through the year, and rates are still moving lower.

Back in January 2017, 30 year mortgage rates were above 4.00 percent, averaging around 4.25 percent. By the end of May, 30 year mortgage rates were back under 4.00 percent, averaging 3.90 percent. 30 year mortgage rates today are even lower, averaging 3.75 percent.

RatesORama.com, along with most mortgage related websites, forecast higher mortgage rates. One of the premier organizations in the mortgage business, the Mortgage Bankers Association, also forecast higher mortgage rates. Naturally, their forecast for average rates has declined each month as rates moved lower.


MBA Mortgage Rate Forecasts

January 19th Forecast

  • 30 year rates averaging 4.40% by the 2nd quarter
  • 30 year rates averaging 4.70% by the 4th quarter

April 18th Forecast

  • 30 year rates averaging 4.30% by the 2nd quarter
  • 30 year rates averaging 4.60% by the 4th quarter

June 12th Forecast

  • 30 year rates averaging 4.10% by the 2nd quarter
  • 30 year rates averaging 4.40% by the 4th quarter

The MBA's forecasts will certainly come down again next month since the 2nd quarter of 2017 is almost over and average 30 year rates are at 3.75 percent.

Future Direction of Mortgage Rates

RatesORama.com now forecast average fixed mortgage rates to hover around current levels for the rest of 2017. That would mean 30 year rates will remain around 3.75 percent and 15 year mortgage rates will remain near 3.00 percent.

Shorter term adjustable mortgage rates are more susceptible to short term bond yields moving higher. The Fed is expected to increase the fed funds rate once more in 2017. The increase will be 25 basis points, which will likely force short term mortgage rates up 25 basis points.

Current average 5 year adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.15 percent. A 25 basis point increase will put 5 year adjustable rates around 3.40 percent. 7 year adjustable rates currently averaging 3.35 percent will move towards 3.60 percent.



Loan Type
Purchase    Refinance
Location
State/City    Zip Code
Loan Amt Points FICO % Down
  
$
30 yr fixed refi in 23223, All points, Credit score: 740+     Sort by:
Lender
APR
Rate
Cost & Fees
Notes
 
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Sebonic Financial
Sebonic Financial
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/8420_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
9.299
9.125
USD
at 0.100 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $2,440.90
Fees in APR: $4,271
Thank you for your inquiry, we will be in touch shortly. 
 
Next button
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Sebonic Financial
Sebonic Financial
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/8420_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
3.889
3.865
USD
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,409.00
Fees in APR: $857
Thank you for your inquiry, we will be in touch shortly. 
 
Next button
30 yr fixed Mortgage Loan from Sebonic Financial
Sebonic Financial
https://www.brimg.net/system/img/inst/8420_logo.gif
300000
Refinance
9.508
9.125
USD
at 1.100 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $2,440.90
Fees in APR: $6,605
Thank you for your inquiry, we will be in touch shortly. 
 
Next button
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from LincolnWay Community Bank
LincolnWay Community Bank
300000
Refinance
4.280
4.250
USD
LincolnWay Community Bank

4.280%
3/19/2019
4.250%
at 0.000 pts
30 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $1,085
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Santander Bank, N.A.
Santander Bank, N.A.
300000
Refinance
4.432
4.375
USD
Santander Bank, N.A.

4.432%
3/22/2019
4.375%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,497.86
Fees in APR: $2,004
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Bank of Oak Ridge
Bank of Oak Ridge
300000
Refinance
4.225
4.180
USD
Bank of Oak Ridge

4.225%
3/21/2019
4.180%
at 0.250 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,463.55
Fees in APR: $853
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Northwest Federal Credit Union
Northwest Federal Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.326
4.250
USD
Northwest Federal Credit Union

4.326%
3/20/2019
4.250%
at 0.875 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $79
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from State Department Federal Credit Union
State Department Federal Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.557
4.500
USD
State Department Federal Credit Union

4.557%
3/18/2019
4.500%
at 0.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $2,000
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Apple Federal Credit Union
Apple Federal Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.345
4.250
USD
Apple Federal Credit Union

4.345%
3/20/2019
4.250%
at 1.000 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $352
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Bank of America
Bank of America
300000
Refinance
4.321
4.250
USD
Bank of America

4.321%
3/20/2019
4.250%
at 0.415 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $1,289
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from TD Bank, NA
TD Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.027
4.000
USD
TD Bank, NA

4.027%
3/22/2019
4.000%
at 0.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,432.25
Fees in APR: $982
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Citizens Bank, NA
Citizens Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.321
4.250
USD
Citizens Bank, NA

4.321%
3/22/2019
4.250%
at 0.375 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,475.82
Fees in APR: $1,408
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Raymond James Bank, NA
Raymond James Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.537
4.500
USD
Raymond James Bank, NA

4.537%
3/19/2019
4.500%
at 0.000 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $1,299
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Virginia Credit Union
Virginia Credit Union
300000
Refinance
4.432
4.375
USD
Virginia Credit Union

4.432%
3/19/2019
4.375%
at 0.125 pts
45 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,497.86
Fees in APR: $1,650
 
 
30 yr fixed mtg refi Mortgage Loan from Fulton Bank, NA
Fulton Bank, NA
300000
Refinance
4.550
4.500
USD
Fulton Bank, NA

4.550%
3/19/2019
4.500%
at 0.250 pts
60 day lock rate
Est payment: $1,520.06
Fees in APR: $1,007
 
 

Mortage Data Provided by Bankrate.com Many lenders have different rates on their own Websites than those posted on Bankrate.com. In order to get the Bankrate.com rate, please identify yourself as a Bankrate.com customer. If you believe that you have received an inaccurate quote or are otherwise not satisfied with the services provided to you by the lender you choose, please click here.

The rates above were collected by Bankrate.com on the dates specified. Rates are subject to change without notice and may vary from branch to branch. Rate/APR and terms may vary based on the creditworthiness of the individual and the extent to which the loan differs from the one used for Bankrate.com quotes. For criteria used in surveys of rates above, click here. These quotes are from banks, thrifts, and brokers, some of whom have paid for a link to their own Web site, where you can find additional information.




Author: Brian McKay
June 29th, 2017